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ASUU Strike Probability Forecast

A single forward-looking number: the probability — between 0% and 100% — that ASUU will declare a national strike within the next 90 days. Driven by six transparently-weighted signals, refreshed weekly. Companion to our live ASUU Strike Risk Tracker.

Probability of a national ASUU strike within 90 days
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As of — Next refresh: — Methodology version: v1.0

The six signals (and what they currently show)

Each signal scores 0\u2013100. Final probability = weighted average. Weights derived from review of every ASUU national strike 2009\u20132024.

What this means in plain English

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Methodology \u2014 how the number is built

  1. Months since last salary review (weight 20%) \u2014 strike risk rises sharply past month 12 without an upward salary adjustment.
  2. FAAC / federal education allocation trend (weight 15%) \u2014 a falling % share signals budget tension; underfunding precedes most strikes.
  3. FG\u2013ASUU dialogue temperature (weight 20%) \u2014 communiqu\u00e9 tone since the last NEC meeting: 0 = active talks, 100 = breakdown.
  4. NLC / SSANU / NASU alignment (weight 15%) \u2014 strikes lengthen and are more likely to be called when allied unions echo the demands.
  5. Political / election cycle (weight 15%) \u2014 historically ASUU avoids strikes in the 90 days before a major federal election but ramps up immediately after.
  6. FX / inflation real-wage erosion (weight 15%) \u2014 when CBN-published inflation > 25% for 3 consecutive months, real-wage anger amplifies every other signal.

All inputs sourced from public ASUU communiqu\u00e9s, FG press releases, CBN bulletins, and reputable Nigerian press. Each weekly update is timestamped and archived; we publish revisions to the methodology openly.

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Two related Harmony insights

This forecast is one component of the broader Harmony Education Confidence Index. If you make decisions for students or parents, you may also want:

Harmony Education Confidence Index → JAPA Readiness Score →

Editor\u2019s note: this is a forecasting tool, not a prediction. Probabilities reflect Harmony\u2019s read of public signals; actual outcomes depend on negotiations we cannot observe. Use as one input among several.