Harmony Education Confidence Index
A single 0–100 number for the state of Nigerian education. Five weighted components, refreshed the first Friday of every month. Designed for journalists, ministries, donors, and EdTech operators who need one signal instead of a hundred.
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The five components
12-month trend
| Month | Index | MoM Δ | Note |
|---|
What this month says
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Methodology — how the index is built
Each component is normalised 0–100 (100 = strongest possible confidence). The Index is then a weighted average: Index = Σ (component × weight).
- Strike risk inverse (weight 25%) — 100 minus the ASUU Strike Probability. Direct read of public-tertiary stability.
- WAEC / NECO health (weight 20%) — registration trend vs prior year, malpractice incidents reported, results-release timeliness.
- FX-adjusted access (weight 20%) — ratio of average Nigerian wage to the cost of one year of local tertiary education plus a representative study-abroad package.
- Federal education funding (weight 15%) — education as a share of the federal budget, normalised against the 15% UNESCO benchmark.
- JAPA pressure inverse (weight 20%) — 100 minus an index of departure pressure (Google Trends for "japa," outbound student visa volumes, passport demand).
All inputs are publicly sourced (WAEC, NECO, NBS, CBN, ASUU, ICEF, Google Trends). Calculations and raw inputs are published alongside each monthly release for full transparency. We commit to publishing every revision openly with a versioned changelog.
Get the Index in your inbox every first Friday
One short email per month: the new number, the move, the why, and what to watch next. Used by EdTech founders, journalists, foundations, and parents.
Two related Harmony insights
The Index aggregates inputs we publish individually too. To go deeper:
ASUU Strike Probability Forecast → JAPA Readiness Score →